In August, job growth slowed more than anticipated following two consecutive months of strong gains, but the rate of increase should be good enough for the Fed to announce a plan to start cutting the massive bond portfolio it built to support the economy.
Stubbornly sluggish wage growth could, however, make the U.S. central bank watchful about hiking interest rates gain this year. The Labor Department reported on Friday nonfarm payrolls advanced by 156,000 last month. The economy initiated 399,000 jobs in June and July.
“We see nothing here that prevents the Fed from initiating its balance-sheet reduction plan at the September meeting,” stated John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics.
Average hourly earnings increased three cents or 0.1 percent after gaining 0.3 percent in July, keeping the year-on-year gain in wages at 2.5 percent for a fifth straight month. Americans also worked fewer hours in August. The average workweek dropped to 34.4 hours from 34.5 hours in July.
August’s balance in employment growth, which drove payroll gains under the 176,000 monthly averages for this year likely mirrors a seasonal fluke as well as a dearth of qualified workers. Over the past couple of years, the initial August job count has tended to show a feeble bias, with revisions consequently showing strength.
“There has been a clear tendency for the August data to be underreported initially and revised up later,” said Jim O‘Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
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The department reported Hurricane Harvey, which devastated parts of Texas, had no “discernable” effect on payrolls as the disaster struck after the survey period for this month’s employment report. Economists report the storm could hinder September payrolls if the disruption from the flooding is lengthy.
With job growth easing, the unemployment rate hiked one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.4 percent. Economists had projected payrolls advancing by 180,000 jobs in August.
Still, August’s increases were far more than the 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population. Underlining labor market strength, manufacturing payrolls hiked by 36,000 jobs, the most in four years, with the motor vehicle sector adding 13,700 positions.
That was also verified by a second report on Friday from the Institute for Supply Management displaying its index for factory activity increased to 58.8 in August, the highest reading since April 2011, from 56.3 in July. A measure of factory employment hurried to its highest level since June 2011.
The employment report displayed construction jobs hiked 28,000 last month. That was the biggest increase since February and came despite a calm in homebuilding activity and home sales. A third report on Friday displayed construction spending declining to a nine-month low in July.